It's been years - literally - since I aced the final in my introductory stats for social sciences (i.e., "class that satisfies the math requirement for students terrified of math") freshman year in college, thereby pulling my proverbial biscuits out of the proverbial fire that was my astonishingly bad grade going into the final. As a result, anything I say about statistics should be inherently suspect, which is why normally, I try not to say anything about statistics. Plus, I'm a lawyer. Most of my audience is probably snoozing anyway, so why add to the problem? Good thing I don't get paid by the reader...
Anyhoodly, maybe I'm just nutty, but Dave Burge is making sense.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Knitting Projects
So here's a knitting project that was fun and that I think turned out well. The picture doesn't really do it justice - the colors are beige, black, brown, and green. I based it on this pattern, using Bernat camouflage yarn in color #10482. It's fun and easy - all you need is to know how to knit and purl.Never let 'em see you coming!
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Separated at Birth?
BB and TR? Maybe it's just the glasses and mustache. But dude looks presidential, circa late 19th-early 20th century. Maybe he was just born too late. Or in the wrong country.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Dog Truths
Dog Truth #3: The less digestible something is, the better it tastes.
Dog Truth #4: Topping the list of dog delicacies are rocks, string, poop, and insects.
Dog Truth #5: On the first truly cool evening in October, around 11:00 p.m., when you are finally nice and warm and comfortable in your bed and just about to drift off to sleep, the dog will make a horrible hacking noise and cough up a ball of spiders, usually on the side of the bed next to the family member who is closest to being asleep and who has the hardest time getting back to sleep.
Dog Truth #6: If you explain to the dog that spiders are arachnids, not insects, the dog will stare at you blankly for a moment before regurgitating a cricket.
Dog Truth #4: Topping the list of dog delicacies are rocks, string, poop, and insects.
Dog Truth #5: On the first truly cool evening in October, around 11:00 p.m., when you are finally nice and warm and comfortable in your bed and just about to drift off to sleep, the dog will make a horrible hacking noise and cough up a ball of spiders, usually on the side of the bed next to the family member who is closest to being asleep and who has the hardest time getting back to sleep.
Dog Truth #6: If you explain to the dog that spiders are arachnids, not insects, the dog will stare at you blankly for a moment before regurgitating a cricket.
Monday, October 20, 2008
I Am Joe
Just a friendly reminder, courtesy of Dave Burge - Joe Wurzelbacher isn't running for office. He has some ideas that might not work out, given his financial and licensing status. But people might want to give him a break, since he wasn't asking for anyone to vote for him.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Wait... Common Sense?
Wow. Someone is saying what I've been thinking. I need a time-out. A news blackout. Twenty-four hours of nothing but knitting, cooking, and Project Runway marathons. Okay, maybe some cleaning, too.
I turned the computer off for a WHOLE DAY this weekend. No blogging, no Facebook, no (gulp) e-mail, nothing. Just church, knitting, cooking, and NFL football. And a little bit of cleaning. And you know what? I didn't miss anything. The news wasn't that important. The world went on. Gas prices continued to fall. No one solved any financial crises.
Sometimes I think I'm going to take Kona as my role model. Does he have any clue what's going on around him? I doubt it. He knows when it's time to get up, when it's time to go out, when it's time to play, and when it's time to eat. When he gets into the car, he puts his front legs on the car seat and waits patiently for a boost, trusting completely that it will come along. Sometimes he has hardships - he gets squirted with the hose or loses his Nylabone under the couch or is forced to heel rather than tearing off after squirrels. But he shakes off his adversity and continues on, tail wagging. And he's about the happiest creature I think I've ever seen.
I'm not saying that we should all resort to eating mulch and bugs, although Kona seems to enjoy it. But it does seem like a great national time-out may be called for. For my part, I think I'm going to turn the computer off again this weekend. And maybe clean some.
P.S. Speaking of the other guy, I think he's finally lost it.
I turned the computer off for a WHOLE DAY this weekend. No blogging, no Facebook, no (gulp) e-mail, nothing. Just church, knitting, cooking, and NFL football. And a little bit of cleaning. And you know what? I didn't miss anything. The news wasn't that important. The world went on. Gas prices continued to fall. No one solved any financial crises.
Sometimes I think I'm going to take Kona as my role model. Does he have any clue what's going on around him? I doubt it. He knows when it's time to get up, when it's time to go out, when it's time to play, and when it's time to eat. When he gets into the car, he puts his front legs on the car seat and waits patiently for a boost, trusting completely that it will come along. Sometimes he has hardships - he gets squirted with the hose or loses his Nylabone under the couch or is forced to heel rather than tearing off after squirrels. But he shakes off his adversity and continues on, tail wagging. And he's about the happiest creature I think I've ever seen.
I'm not saying that we should all resort to eating mulch and bugs, although Kona seems to enjoy it. But it does seem like a great national time-out may be called for. For my part, I think I'm going to turn the computer off again this weekend. And maybe clean some.
P.S. Speaking of the other guy, I think he's finally lost it.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Weekend Update
Someone dear to me is very upset that I posted a link to the YouTube video showing Farrakhan alluding to Obama as the Messiah. Which shows once again that I should always explain WHY I'm posting something, not just throw it up there with a reference to it being creepy. (Side note: the YouTube guy who posted it seems a little creepy, too.) Especially when it's to someone as incendiary and controversial as Farrakhan.
Here's the deal: I find referring to anyone alive today in Messianic terms deeply disturbing. Obama may be the best thing to happen to this country since the SEC (that's the Southeastern Conference, not the Securities and Exchange Commission, you Philistines), but the Messiah, he ain't. In fact, given that he's a Christian, I hope he's as disturbed by those references as I am. He's not even John, Paul, George, and that other guy. He's a politician. He may have good ideas. He may be able to do great things for this country. He may be incredibly successful. He may even be the next George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, or [insert your favorite politician's name here]. But he's not our savior. He's not even the Beatles. He's a guy who thinks he can do a better job at running the country than the other candidates out there. Can he? I have my doubts, but I'm willing to be proven wrong.
Hero worship is a quick way to disillusionment. No one is worth your worship other than the true Messiah. Don't make the mistake of thinking that anyone is somehow anything other than human, flawed, and fallen.
I'm so ready for this election to be over.
Here's the deal: I find referring to anyone alive today in Messianic terms deeply disturbing. Obama may be the best thing to happen to this country since the SEC (that's the Southeastern Conference, not the Securities and Exchange Commission, you Philistines), but the Messiah, he ain't. In fact, given that he's a Christian, I hope he's as disturbed by those references as I am. He's not even John, Paul, George, and that other guy. He's a politician. He may have good ideas. He may be able to do great things for this country. He may be incredibly successful. He may even be the next George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, John F. Kennedy, or [insert your favorite politician's name here]. But he's not our savior. He's not even the Beatles. He's a guy who thinks he can do a better job at running the country than the other candidates out there. Can he? I have my doubts, but I'm willing to be proven wrong.
Hero worship is a quick way to disillusionment. No one is worth your worship other than the true Messiah. Don't make the mistake of thinking that anyone is somehow anything other than human, flawed, and fallen.
I'm so ready for this election to be over.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
P.S.
How does Obama figure that his plan to hike payroll taxes on anyone making over $250,000 won't hurt small businesses because so few of them fall into that category? Does he mean that small business owners reporting their corporate taxes on their personal returns (those owning LLCs, partnerships, or S-corps) typically don't report more than $250,000 in income annually, or that small corporations typically don't report more than $250,000 in income annually? The latter seems unlikely. I'm not a tax expert or anything like it, but his plan doesn't make sense, and his web site doesn't help. Even slightly.
The Great Debate 08, Pt. 2
I had two head-snap-back moments in the debates recently. The first came in the vice presidential debate, during which Joe "Zoom! Teeth Whitening System" Biden said that Obama wants to make it possible for bankruptcy judges to alter not just the interest rate on mortgages of those filing bankruptcy but also the principal. The second came last night, when John "My Friends" McCain said that he wants to enable the Treasury Secretary to buy up mortgages and bargain the principal down to the amount the house is actually worth, not the amount of the mortgage. (Side note: As Glenn Beck has mentioned, this may be a moot point - the bailout bill may already grant the Treasury Secretary this power, among others. In fact, I would like to propose a resolution that from henceforth, the Treasury Secretary shall be known to all and sundry as He Who Controls The Wind and The Seas.)
My friends... have we lost our collective marbles? I know times are tough. I know a lot of us are concerned about where we're going from here on out. I'm less worried about myself - God willing, I have a couple of productive decades left before I have to look into the possibility of taking a job as a Walmart greeter - than for my parents and their generation, for whom retirement may be nearly impossible at this point. In fact, I think any honest investment advisor, when asked what one should do with one's savings in today's environment, would shake his head and say, "Dunno. Have you looked at investing in rocks? Because I hear they're the next big thing."
And I know - boy, do I know - that a lot of us bought houses at the top of the market and are having trouble affording and/or selling them now. But here's the thing: once you start giving judges or the legislature the power to renegotiate private contracts, you are on your way to one of a few things, none of which are desirable and some of which are horrifying. Socialism is one - or more specifically, a system of government in which the power to govern is not granted to the state by the people but is granted by the state to the people. A terrible credit market is another - yes, worse than the one we have now, if that's possible. What bank in its right mind will want to lend money to you if you can turn around a few years later and say, "You know, I don't think I should pay you the whole $100,000. I think my house is only worth $90,000. So I'll pay you that." And if you can get a judge or a government agency to agree with you, the bank has to eat $10,000, on top of attorney's fees and all kinds of other expenses.
I humbly submit that if we go this route, mortgages for first-time homebuyers will be nearly impossible to obtain. After all, almost all first-timers have to purchase mortgage insurance - a policy against the buyer's default on the mortgage. The price on that will go through the roof and become almost unobtainable if the chances and consequences of default go up. Banks - who have to make money somehow - will raise interest rates, charge more fees... that is, do anything within the law to ensure that if you do run crying to the judge, they're still going to emerge from the deal ahead. And the government, whose intention was always to get more and more people into their own homes rather than leases, consequences be dammed, will see our population returning to apartments in droves.
Set aside for a moment whether that's actually a bad thing, and whether anyone who has a mortgage actually owns their home or not. (Anyone with a passing knowledge of real estate law will tell you that you only own part of the title to your home, but we can discuss Norman legal concepts another day.) The larger problem with all the talk about bailouts and afforability and decreasing equity and Wall Street greed is that it ignores a basic point - any contract you make is both a gamble and a tradeoff. When you sign a contract to buy a house or a car, you're gambling that you will like the house or car just as much in five years as you do today; that it will meet your needs; and that its value to you approaches the price you've agreed to pay. You're trading off the assurance inherent in agreeing on a price for the fact that if you waited a month or two more the price could go down (but it could go up). You make that gamble aware of the tradeoff and having satisfied yourself that it's worth it - that you're getting something at least approaching equal to what you're giving up.
If the government can then step in and tell you that, in fact, what you gave up is not equal to what you got - not even close - are you ever going to be willing to gamble? Will anyone be? Will our system be able to handle it?
Here's the thing: fair market value is a simple concept but a powerful one. It's just what a willing buyer will pay and a willing seller will accept in an open market. If I bought my house for $100,000 a year ago, and it's worth $50,000 now, I hate to admit it, but, absent fraud, my house was worth $100,000 a year ago and is worth $50,000 now. Because a year ago, the guy I bought my house from could have sold it to someone else for $100,000. So the only arguments you can make, given this, that we should be rescued from making the gamble we made are: (1) we were too stupid to recognize that we were getting ripped off, or (2) the concept of fair market value doesn't work. If we're willing to retain capitalism and the free market as the basis for the American economic system, I think we have to reject (2), so we're stuck with (1). (Rejecting our current economic system is a question for another time.)
So I ask you - are you happy to be told that you're stupid? Because honestly, that's what both parties are saying right now. You're too dumb to know what's good for you, so we have to step in and fix this problem for you. Never mind that the cure may kill you.
Americans, let's man up. We got the mortgages we have because we wanted extra money to rehab the house. Or we wanted to live in a certain area. Because we believed that we could afford the monthly payments, as long as the interest rate didn't change and we kept our jobs and kept getting raises and didn't need to buy a car or a washing machine or a furnace in the next five years. We made a gamble. Believe me, I've been there. I've made that calculation. Sometimes I came out on the right side. Sometimes I had to pay, and pay dearly, for making a bad one. But we all have to pay. So let's suck it up, admit that greed doesn't begin and end on Wall Street, and keep making our payments. As Polonius said, "Neither a borrower nor a lender be." (Never mind what happened to Polonius. Just don't hide behind the curtains when the homocidally insane son of the dead king is around.)
My friends... have we lost our collective marbles? I know times are tough. I know a lot of us are concerned about where we're going from here on out. I'm less worried about myself - God willing, I have a couple of productive decades left before I have to look into the possibility of taking a job as a Walmart greeter - than for my parents and their generation, for whom retirement may be nearly impossible at this point. In fact, I think any honest investment advisor, when asked what one should do with one's savings in today's environment, would shake his head and say, "Dunno. Have you looked at investing in rocks? Because I hear they're the next big thing."
And I know - boy, do I know - that a lot of us bought houses at the top of the market and are having trouble affording and/or selling them now. But here's the thing: once you start giving judges or the legislature the power to renegotiate private contracts, you are on your way to one of a few things, none of which are desirable and some of which are horrifying. Socialism is one - or more specifically, a system of government in which the power to govern is not granted to the state by the people but is granted by the state to the people. A terrible credit market is another - yes, worse than the one we have now, if that's possible. What bank in its right mind will want to lend money to you if you can turn around a few years later and say, "You know, I don't think I should pay you the whole $100,000. I think my house is only worth $90,000. So I'll pay you that." And if you can get a judge or a government agency to agree with you, the bank has to eat $10,000, on top of attorney's fees and all kinds of other expenses.
I humbly submit that if we go this route, mortgages for first-time homebuyers will be nearly impossible to obtain. After all, almost all first-timers have to purchase mortgage insurance - a policy against the buyer's default on the mortgage. The price on that will go through the roof and become almost unobtainable if the chances and consequences of default go up. Banks - who have to make money somehow - will raise interest rates, charge more fees... that is, do anything within the law to ensure that if you do run crying to the judge, they're still going to emerge from the deal ahead. And the government, whose intention was always to get more and more people into their own homes rather than leases, consequences be dammed, will see our population returning to apartments in droves.
Set aside for a moment whether that's actually a bad thing, and whether anyone who has a mortgage actually owns their home or not. (Anyone with a passing knowledge of real estate law will tell you that you only own part of the title to your home, but we can discuss Norman legal concepts another day.) The larger problem with all the talk about bailouts and afforability and decreasing equity and Wall Street greed is that it ignores a basic point - any contract you make is both a gamble and a tradeoff. When you sign a contract to buy a house or a car, you're gambling that you will like the house or car just as much in five years as you do today; that it will meet your needs; and that its value to you approaches the price you've agreed to pay. You're trading off the assurance inherent in agreeing on a price for the fact that if you waited a month or two more the price could go down (but it could go up). You make that gamble aware of the tradeoff and having satisfied yourself that it's worth it - that you're getting something at least approaching equal to what you're giving up.
If the government can then step in and tell you that, in fact, what you gave up is not equal to what you got - not even close - are you ever going to be willing to gamble? Will anyone be? Will our system be able to handle it?
Here's the thing: fair market value is a simple concept but a powerful one. It's just what a willing buyer will pay and a willing seller will accept in an open market. If I bought my house for $100,000 a year ago, and it's worth $50,000 now, I hate to admit it, but, absent fraud, my house was worth $100,000 a year ago and is worth $50,000 now. Because a year ago, the guy I bought my house from could have sold it to someone else for $100,000. So the only arguments you can make, given this, that we should be rescued from making the gamble we made are: (1) we were too stupid to recognize that we were getting ripped off, or (2) the concept of fair market value doesn't work. If we're willing to retain capitalism and the free market as the basis for the American economic system, I think we have to reject (2), so we're stuck with (1). (Rejecting our current economic system is a question for another time.)
So I ask you - are you happy to be told that you're stupid? Because honestly, that's what both parties are saying right now. You're too dumb to know what's good for you, so we have to step in and fix this problem for you. Never mind that the cure may kill you.
Americans, let's man up. We got the mortgages we have because we wanted extra money to rehab the house. Or we wanted to live in a certain area. Because we believed that we could afford the monthly payments, as long as the interest rate didn't change and we kept our jobs and kept getting raises and didn't need to buy a car or a washing machine or a furnace in the next five years. We made a gamble. Believe me, I've been there. I've made that calculation. Sometimes I came out on the right side. Sometimes I had to pay, and pay dearly, for making a bad one. But we all have to pay. So let's suck it up, admit that greed doesn't begin and end on Wall Street, and keep making our payments. As Polonius said, "Neither a borrower nor a lender be." (Never mind what happened to Polonius. Just don't hide behind the curtains when the homocidally insane son of the dead king is around.)
Monday, October 6, 2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
The Great Debate 08
Russ Parr on WIZF just finished an interview with Gwen Ifill, moderator of last night's vice presidential debate. I didn't get to hear the whole thing, so I'm looking forward to the podcast. I did get to hear Russ demand of Ms. Ifill, "Why didn't either of them address civil rights?" Apparently, Mr. Parr missed the discussion of gay marriage. Or is that not a civil right? Apparently, "civil rights" doesn't always mean "civil rights." I'm confused.
Ms. Ifill's performance seemed relatively innocuous to me, but then, I only made it through about a half-hour of the debate before collapsing. I was tired, and the glare off Biden's teeth was blinding me.
As usual, Dave Burge is on the case.
Ms. Ifill's performance seemed relatively innocuous to me, but then, I only made it through about a half-hour of the debate before collapsing. I was tired, and the glare off Biden's teeth was blinding me.
As usual, Dave Burge is on the case.
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